- Sproat brings 6.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP to Busch Stadium
- Cardinals 21-14 and winners of one straight facing Brewers
- NRFI probability registers at 61 percent with 7.0 percent edge
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Andre Pallante holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Brandon Sproat carries a 6.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP, while Andre Pallante sits at 3.73 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Brandon Sproat at 8.44 K/9, Andre Pallante at 7.47 K/9.
K projections: Brandon Sproat at 3.7 (line 4.5)
Andre Pallante projected at 4.2 (line 3.5).
Andre Pallante has a 77.8% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Brandon Sproat.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Brandon Sproat (Milwaukee Brewers) is projected for 3.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 21.6% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Andre Pallante (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 4.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.7% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Milwaukee Brewers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. St. Louis Cardinals batters K at 21.6%, Milwaukee Brewers batters at 24.7%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 59.7% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 54.1%.
- That creates a moderate 5.6% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -118 / YRFI -104 at FanDuel.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. Umpire data will be added automatically once the assignment is posted.
Our NRFI model sits at 41-39 (51.2%) on official picks this season.
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Milwaukee Brewers K vulnerability: 24.7% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
St. Louis Cardinals K vulnerability: 21.6% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Busch Stadium carries a 1.01 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.04 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Retractable roof; Relatively neutral dimensions; Gateway Arch viewable from stadium.
- Roof: Retractable.
- First pitch forecast: 50F with 9 mph winds from the N. Humidity: 90%.
- Wind advisory: 9 mph winds from the N may impact fly balls.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.1 combined runs, with Milwaukee Brewers projected for 2.7 and St. Louis Cardinals for 2.4.
- That's 2.4 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.