- Jacob deGrom carries a 2.01 ERA and 0.96 WHIP
- Yankees on a four-game winning streak at 24-11
- No Run First Inning probability sits at 54 percent
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Jacob deGrom holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Jacob deGrom carries a 2.01 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, while Elmer Rodríguez sits at 4.50 ERA and 2.00 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Jacob deGrom at 11.49 K/9, Elmer Rodríguez at 6.75 K/9.
K projections: Jacob deGrom at 6.0 (line 6.5)
Elmer Rodríguez projected at 3.5 (line 3.5).
Jacob deGrom has a 60.6% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Elmer Rodríguez.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Jacob deGrom (Texas Rangers) is projected for 6.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.7% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Elmer Rodríguez (New York Yankees) is projected for 3.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.8% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Texas Rangers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Yankees batters K at 24.7%, Texas Rangers batters at 24.8%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 53.8% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 50.5%.
- That creates a slim 3.4% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -102 / YRFI -120 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Paul Clemons runs a wide zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 41-39 (51.2%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Texas Rangers K vulnerability: 24.8% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
New York Yankees K vulnerability: 24.7% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Yankee Stadium carries a 1.04 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.11 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Short porch in right field (314ft); Monument Park in center field; High walls in left-center.
- First pitch forecast: 80F with 18 mph winds from the SSW. Humidity: 16%.
- Wind advisory: 18 mph winds from the SSW may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Paul Clemons.
- Career NRFI rate: 54.0% across 74 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly wide.
- K factor: 1.005 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.7 combined runs, with Texas Rangers projected for 2.9 and New York Yankees for 2.9.
- That's 3.3 runs below the posted total of 9.0, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.