- NRFI model shows 53 percent probability, 5.9 percent edge
- Michael King 81 percent NRFI rate across 32 starts
- Oracle Park 0.93 run factor, 19 mph wind
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Michael King holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Michael King carries a 3.03 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, while Cesar Perdomo sits at 3.68 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Michael King at 7.61 K/9, Cesar Perdomo at 6.75 K/9.
K projections: Michael King at 3.7 (line 4.5)
Cesar Perdomo projected at 2.4 (line 3.5).
Michael King has a 77.4% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Cesar Perdomo.
This is a RHP vs LHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Michael King (San Diego Padres) is projected for 3.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 25.1% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Cesar Perdomo (San Francisco Giants) is projected for 2.4 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.1% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The San Francisco Giants lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. San Francisco Giants batters K at 25.1%, San Diego Padres batters at 23.1%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 53.4% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 58.0%.
- That creates a slim -4.6% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -138 / YRFI +104 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Jordan Baker runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 154-136 (53.1%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
San Diego Padres K vulnerability: 23.1% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
San Francisco Giants K vulnerability: 25.1% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Oracle Park carries a 0.93 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: McCovey Cove in right field; Bay breezes suppress HRs; Chilly climate.
- First pitch forecast: 70F with 12 mph winds from the W. Humidity: 65%.
- Temperature drops from 70F at first pitch to 66F by the late innings.
- Wind advisory: 12 mph winds from the W may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Jordan Baker.
- Career NRFI rate: 42.9% across 7 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly wide.
- K factor: 0.946 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.0 combined runs, with San Diego Padres projected for 2.4 and San Francisco Giants for 2.6.
- That's 2.5 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.