Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers Preview on Sunday, September 13, 2026

The Colorado Rockies bring a six-game losing streak into Comerica Park to face the Detroit Tigers, who have won three straight. First pitch is set for 12:10 PM ET on Thursday afternoon. Gabriel Hughes takes the ball for Colorado carrying a 5.81 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. His 7.53 strikeouts per nine sits below league average, and the K model projects him for just 3.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. That's neutral territory with medium confidence. Jackson Jobe counters for Detroit with a 4.45 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, striking out 8.26 per nine. The K model has him projected at 3.5 against a line of 4.5, pointing toward the under with the same medium confidence. The projected total sits at 5.4 runs, split nearly down the middle at 2.6 for Colorado and 2.7 for Detroit. Comerica Park carries a 0.98 run factor, just a tick below neutral. Recent history at the venue tells a different story. Over the last ten games the park has averaged 8.9 runs, with the over cashing 57 percent of the time. The NRFI has hit at 70 percent in that same stretch. Hughes owns a 50 percent NRFI rate across ten first-inning appearances. Jobe has been sharper early, posting an 83 percent NRFI rate over six starts. The NRFI model gives this matchup a 55 percent probability with a half-point edge. Both bullpens are fully rested at 100 out of 100. Weather sits at 79 degrees with an 11 mph wind out of the west. Key bats to watch include Jake McCarthy with a 12.5 percent barrel rate, TJ Rumfield hitting.303 against righties, and Cole Carrigg posting a 10.5 percent barrel rate.

Starter matchup: Gabriel Hughes (Colorado Rockies) vs Jackson Jobe (Detroit Tigers).
Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
NRFI model: 54% probability, lean YRFI, -2.3% edge.

Pitching Matchup

COL Away

Gabriel Hughes

RHP · 0-8 · 12 GS

ERA

6.37

WHIP

1.45

K/9

7.58

59.1

Career: 6.37 ERA · 1.45 WHIP · 7.58 K/9

DET Home

Jackson Jobe

RHP · 2-2 · 7 GS

ERA

3.89

WHIP

1.27

K/9

8.83

34.2

Career: 3.90 ERA · 1.36 WHIP · 7.70 K/9

On the season, Jackson Jobe holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Gabriel Hughes carries a 6.37 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, while Jackson Jobe sits at 3.89 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Gabriel Hughes at 7.58 K/9, Jackson Jobe at 8.83 K/9.
K projections: Gabriel Hughes at 3.1 (line 3.5)
Jackson Jobe projected at 3.5 (line 4.5).
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.

Strikeout Projections

Gabriel Hughes vs DET

Proj: 3.1Line: 3.5

-0.4

Confidence:

Jackson Jobe vs COL

Proj: 3.5Line: 4.5

-1.0

Confidence:

View all K projections on SlateIQ

Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.

Gabriel Hughes (Colorado Rockies) is projected for 3.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 27.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.

Jackson Jobe (Detroit Tigers) is projected for 3.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection sits 1.0 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.9% with a 28.0% whiff rate.

The Detroit Tigers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Detroit Tigers batters K at 27.0%, Colorado Rockies batters at 24.9%.

NRFI & First 5 Analysis

NRFI Model

53.8%

probability of YRFI

+-2.3%

market edge

Monitor

Market implied: 56.1%Model: 53.8%

First 5 Innings

2.9est. F5 runs

COL

6.37 ERA

4.9 inn/start

DET

3.89 ERA

4.9 inn/start

F5 lean: Strong DET

COL K Projection

Gabriel Hughes

3.1proj

Line: 3.5

-0.4 NEUTRAL

Confidence

DET K Projection

Jackson Jobe

3.5proj

Line: 4.5

-1.0 UNDER

Confidence

Explore all model projections

Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 53.8% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 56.1%.

That creates a slim -2.3% edge on YRFI.
The best available line is NRFI -128 / YRFI +104 at FanDuel.

Home plate umpire James Jean runs a tight zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
Our NRFI model sits at 154-138 (52.7%) on official picks this season.

Prop Edges

1 model signal detected

Jackson Jobe

Strikeouts Under 4.5

See all today's picks and edges

Lineup & Matchup Breakdown

Colorado Rockies Confirmed

K%: 24.9

1Jordan BeckRLF

2Adael AmadorS2B

3Cole CarriggSSS

4TJ RumfieldL1B

5Mickey MoniakLDH

6Troy JohnstonLRF

7Vimael MachínL3B

8Brett SullivanLC

9Zac VeenLCF

Whiff rate: 28.0%Team page

Detroit Tigers Confirmed

K%: 27.0

1Brett CallahanLDH

2Hao-Yu LeeR2B

3Colt KeithL3B

4Ben MalgeriRLF

5Dillon DinglerRC

6Max ClarkLCF

7Spencer TorkelsonR1B

8Zach McKinstryLRF

9John PeckRSS

Whiff rate: 28.0%Team page

Batter vs Pitcher matchup tool

Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.

Colorado Rockies K vulnerability: 24.9% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.

Detroit Tigers K vulnerability: 27.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.

Ballpark, Weather & Umpire

Comerica Park

Run Factor0.98

HR Factor0.95

Full park profile

Home Plate Umpire

James Jean

Slightly tight NRFI: 40.0% 5 games

Full umpire profile

Hourly Game Forecast

77°

12 PM

8 mph

WNW

80°

1 PM

9 mph

WNW

80°

2 PM

11 mph

WNW

81°

3 PM

11 mph

WNW

Comerica Park carries a 0.98 run factor (neutral).
Home run factor: 0.95 — the park neutral for HR power.
Park notes: Very deep center field (420ft); Tiered elevation; Wind patterns from Great Lakes.

First pitch forecast: 77F with 8 mph winds from the WNW. Humidity: 69%.
Temperature drops from 77F at first pitch to 81F by the late innings.

Home plate umpire: James Jean.
Career NRFI rate: 40.0% across 5 games tracked.
Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
K factor: 0.800 (below average strikeouts in his games).

Run Projections & Total

Our projection model puts the total at 5.3 combined runs, with Colorado Rockies projected for 2.6 and Detroit Tigers for 2.7.
That's 3.2 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.

The Bottom Line

The strikeout market leans under for Jobe, but the half-point edge at medium confidence offers little separation from the vig. Hughes projects below his line as well, though the neutral lean holds no betting signal. The NRFI carries a 55 percent probability with a marginal half-point edge, backed by Jobe's strong early-inning track record and the recent 70 percent NRFI hit rate at Comerica. The risk lies in Hughes, whose 50 percent first-inning rate and elevated ERA leave the outcome closer to a coin flip. The total projection of 5.4 sits well below the park's recent 8.9-run average, creating tension between the model and the environment. Focus belongs on the NRFI if anywhere, but the edge is thin and the sample on Jobe remains small.

Today's picks Model projections SlateIQ

This preview is generated from thecapper.io projection models and publicly available data. All projections are model estimates, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers Preview

Key Facts

Betting Board

Model Angles

Pitching Matchup

Strikeout Projections

NRFI & First 5 Analysis

Prop Edges

Lineup & Matchup Breakdown

Ballpark, Weather & Umpire

Run Projections & Total

Key Facts

Betting Board

Model Angles

Pitching Matchup

Strikeout Projections

NRFI & First 5 Analysis

Prop Edges

Lineup & Matchup Breakdown

Ballpark, Weather & Umpire

Run Projections & Total

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