- Starter matchup: Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers) vs Jared Jones (Pittsburgh Pirates).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 67% probability, lean NRFI, +15.7% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Logan Henderson holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Logan Henderson carries a 2.34 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, while Jared Jones sits at 4.10 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Logan Henderson at 10.09 K/9, Jared Jones at 10.51 K/9.
K projections: Logan Henderson at 4.7 (line 6.5)
Jared Jones projected at 4.9 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Logan Henderson holds a 86.7% career NRFI rate, Jared Jones at 81.8%. Combined average: 84.2%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers) is projected for 4.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection sits 1.8 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 24.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Jared Jones (Pittsburgh Pirates) is projected for 4.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.4% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Pittsburgh Pirates lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Pittsburgh Pirates batters K at 24.0%, Milwaukee Brewers batters at 23.4%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 66.7% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 51.0%.
- That creates a strong 15.7% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -104 / YRFI -118 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a top pick in our publication system.
- Home plate umpire D.J. Reyburn runs a wide zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 156-145 (51.8%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Milwaukee Brewers K vulnerability: 23.4% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Pittsburgh Pirates K vulnerability: 24.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- PNC Park carries a 1.00 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 0.98 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Right field wall angles; Elevated RF corner; Allegheny River backdrop.
- First pitch forecast: 84F with 1 mph winds from the WSW. Humidity: 71%.
- Calm wind conditions. Minimal impact on ball flight.
- Home plate umpire: D.J. Reyburn.
- Career NRFI rate: 42.9% across 7 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Wide.
- K factor: 1.049 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.5 combined runs, with Milwaukee Brewers projected for 2.8 and Pittsburgh Pirates for 2.7.
- That's 2.0 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.