- Starter matchup: Cesar Perdomo (San Francisco Giants) vs Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 59% probability, lean NRFI, +6.6% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Tyler Glasnow holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Cesar Perdomo carries a 3.68 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, while Tyler Glasnow sits at 3.50 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Cesar Perdomo at 6.75 K/9, Tyler Glasnow at 11.24 K/9.
K projections: Cesar Perdomo at 0.9 (line 2.5)
Tyler Glasnow projected at 4.7 (line 6.5).
Tyler Glasnow has a 76.2% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Cesar Perdomo.
This is a LHP vs RHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Cesar Perdomo (San Francisco Giants) is projected for 0.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 2.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 21.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) is projected for 4.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection sits 1.8 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.6% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The San Francisco Giants lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Los Angeles Dodgers batters K at 21.0%, San Francisco Giants batters at 24.6%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 59.4% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.8%.
- That creates a moderate 6.6% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -112 / YRFI -108 at DraftKings.
- Home plate umpire Louie Krupa runs a wide zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 158-146 (52.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
San Francisco Giants K vulnerability: 24.6% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Los Angeles Dodgers K vulnerability: 21.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
Park factor data not available for UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium.
- First pitch forecast: 70F with 7 mph winds from the WSW. Humidity: 70%.
- Temperature drops from 70F at first pitch to 64F by the late innings.
Home plate umpire: Louie Krupa.
Zone tendency: average.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.2 combined runs, with San Francisco Giants projected for 2.6 and Los Angeles Dodgers for 2.7.
- That's 2.8 runs below the posted total of 8.0, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.