- Starter matchup: Trey Yesavage (Toronto Blue Jays) vs Shane Baz (Baltimore Orioles).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 48% probability, lean YRFI, -3.7% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Trey Yesavage holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Trey Yesavage carries a 3.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, while Shane Baz sits at 4.11 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Trey Yesavage at 8.74 K/9, Shane Baz at 7.91 K/9.
K projections: Trey Yesavage at 3.8 (line 2.5)
Shane Baz projected at 3.1 (line 3.5).
First-inning scoring: Trey Yesavage holds a 66.7% career NRFI rate, Shane Baz at 67.8%. Combined average: 67.2%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Trey Yesavage (Toronto Blue Jays) is projected for 3.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 2.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 27.3% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Shane Baz (Baltimore Orioles) is projected for 3.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 20.3% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Baltimore Orioles lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Baltimore Orioles batters K at 27.3%, Toronto Blue Jays batters at 20.3%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 47.5% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 51.2%.
- That creates a slim -3.7% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -105 / YRFI -115 at FanDuel.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. Umpire data will be added automatically once the assignment is posted.
Our NRFI model sits at 159-154 (50.8%) on official picks this season.
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Toronto Blue Jays K vulnerability: 20.3% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Baltimore Orioles K vulnerability: 27.3% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Oriole Park at Camden Yards carries a 1.03 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.08 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Left field wall angles away; Narrow left field alley; Elevated field area.
First pitch forecast: 68F with 5 mph winds from the ENE. Humidity: 77%.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.4 combined runs, with Toronto Blue Jays projected for 2.5 and Baltimore Orioles for 2.9.
- That's 2.1 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors Baltimore Orioles by 0.5 runs.