- Starter matchup: Dustin May (Milwaukee Brewers) vs Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 50% probability, lean NRFI, +1.3% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Zack Wheeler holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Dustin May carries a 4.61 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, while Zack Wheeler sits at 2.99 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Dustin May at 8.77 K/9, Zack Wheeler at 10.60 K/9.
K projections: Dustin May at 3.3 (line 3.5)
Zack Wheeler projected at 5.0 (line 6.5).
First-inning scoring: Dustin May holds a 66.0% career NRFI rate, Zack Wheeler at 80.3%. Combined average: 73.2%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Dustin May (Milwaukee Brewers) is projected for 3.3 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 21.6% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies) is projected for 5.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection sits 1.5 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 25.1% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Milwaukee Brewers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Philadelphia Phillies batters K at 21.6%, Milwaukee Brewers batters at 25.1%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 50.3% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 49.0%.
- That creates a slim 1.3% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI +104 / YRFI -128 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Shane Livensparger runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 159-154 (50.8%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Milwaukee Brewers K vulnerability: 25.1% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Philadelphia Phillies K vulnerability: 21.6% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Citizens Bank Park carries a 1.04 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.08 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Short left field porch (329ft); Elevated playing surface; Art Deco design.
First pitch forecast: 63F with 8 mph winds from the NE. Humidity: 82%.
- Home plate umpire: Shane Livensparger.
- Career NRFI rate: 57.1% across 7 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
- K factor: 0.929 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.6 combined runs, with Milwaukee Brewers projected for 2.9 and Philadelphia Phillies for 2.7.
- That's 1.9 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.