- Starter matchup: Andre Pallante (St. Louis Cardinals) vs Jared Jones (Pittsburgh Pirates).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 57% probability, lean NRFI, +7.2% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Andre Pallante holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Andre Pallante carries a 3.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, while Jared Jones sits at 4.17 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Andre Pallante at 6.20 K/9, Jared Jones at 10.82 K/9.
K projections: Andre Pallante at 2.9 (line 3.5)
Jared Jones projected at 5.0 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Andre Pallante holds a 70.0% career NRFI rate, Jared Jones at 83.2%. Combined average: 76.6%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Andre Pallante (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 2.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.2% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Jared Jones (Pittsburgh Pirates) is projected for 5.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.1% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Pittsburgh Pirates lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Pittsburgh Pirates batters K at 24.2%, St. Louis Cardinals batters at 23.1%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 56.7% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 49.5%.
- That creates a moderate 7.2% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI +102 / YRFI -124 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a playable in our publication system.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. Umpire data will be added automatically once the assignment is posted.
Our NRFI model sits at 159-154 (50.8%) on official picks this season.
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
St. Louis Cardinals K vulnerability: 23.1% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Pittsburgh Pirates K vulnerability: 24.2% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- PNC Park carries a 1.00 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 0.98 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Right field wall angles; Elevated RF corner; Allegheny River backdrop.
- First pitch forecast: 58F with 10 mph winds from the ENE. Humidity: 84%.
- Wind advisory: 10 mph winds from the ENE may impact fly balls.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.4 combined runs, with St. Louis Cardinals projected for 2.6 and Pittsburgh Pirates for 2.8.
- That's 2.1 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.