- Starter matchup: Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays) vs Max Fried (New York Yankees).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 62% probability, lean NRFI, +13.0% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Max Fried holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Drew Rasmussen carries a 2.72 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, while Max Fried sits at 2.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Drew Rasmussen at 8.87 K/9, Max Fried at 8.49 K/9.
K projections: Drew Rasmussen at 4.1 (line 5.5)
Max Fried projected at 3.8 (line 5.5).
Max Fried has a 79.7% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Drew Rasmussen.
This is a RHP vs LHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays) is projected for 4.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.4 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 26.1% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Max Fried (New York Yankees) is projected for 3.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.7 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 21.5% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The New York Yankees lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Yankees batters K at 26.1%, Tampa Bay Rays batters at 21.5%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 62.0% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 49.0%.
- That creates a strong 13.0% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI +104 / YRFI -128 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire John Libka runs a wide zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 159-154 (50.8%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Tampa Bay Rays K vulnerability: 21.5% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
New York Yankees K vulnerability: 26.1% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Yankee Stadium carries a 1.04 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.11 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Short porch in right field (314ft); Monument Park in center field; High walls in left-center.
- First pitch forecast: 65F with 11 mph winds from the NNE. Humidity: 51%.
- Wind advisory: 11 mph winds from the NNE may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: John Libka.
- Career NRFI rate: 57.1% across 7 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Wide.
- K factor: 0.938 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.6 combined runs, with Tampa Bay Rays projected for 2.6 and New York Yankees for 3.0.
- That's 0.9 runs below the posted total of 6.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors New York Yankees by 0.4 runs.