- Starter matchup: Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers) vs Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 62% probability, lean NRFI, +13.7% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Logan Henderson holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Logan Henderson carries a 2.51 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, while Aaron Nola sits at 4.49 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Logan Henderson at 10.32 K/9, Aaron Nola at 9.04 K/9.
K projections: Logan Henderson at 4.5 (line 5.5)
Aaron Nola projected at 3.7 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Logan Henderson holds a 88.2% career NRFI rate, Aaron Nola at 72.4%. Combined average: 80.3%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers) is projected for 4.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.0 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 21.4% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies) is projected for 3.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.8 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.8% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Milwaukee Brewers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Philadelphia Phillies batters K at 21.4%, Milwaukee Brewers batters at 24.8%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 62.3% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 48.5%.
- That creates a strong 13.7% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI +106 / YRFI -130 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a top pick in our publication system.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. Umpire data will be added automatically once the assignment is posted.
Our NRFI model sits at 160-154 (51.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Milwaukee Brewers K vulnerability: 24.8% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Philadelphia Phillies K vulnerability: 21.4% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Citizens Bank Park carries a 1.04 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.08 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Short left field porch (329ft); Elevated playing surface; Art Deco design.
- First pitch forecast: 64F with 14 mph winds from the ENE. Humidity: 57%.
- Temperature drops from 64F at first pitch to 61F by the late innings.
- Wind advisory: 14 mph winds from the ENE may impact fly balls.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.6 combined runs, with Milwaukee Brewers projected for 2.9 and Philadelphia Phillies for 2.7.
- That's 1.9 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.