- Starter matchup: Ian Seymour (Tampa Bay Rays) vs Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 54% probability, lean NRFI, +1.2% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Gerrit Cole holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Ian Seymour carries a 4.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, while Gerrit Cole sits at 3.63 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Ian Seymour at 10.96 K/9, Gerrit Cole at 9.12 K/9.
K projections: Ian Seymour at 5.6 (line 5.5)
Gerrit Cole projected at 3.7 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Ian Seymour holds a 73.3% career NRFI rate, Gerrit Cole at 76.5%. Combined average: 74.9%.
This is a LHP vs RHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Ian Seymour (Tampa Bay Rays) is projected for 5.6 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 25.2% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees) is projected for 3.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.8 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 21.4% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The New York Yankees lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Yankees batters K at 25.2%, Tampa Bay Rays batters at 21.4%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 53.6% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.4%.
- That creates a slim 1.2% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -110 / YRFI -110 at FanDuel.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. Umpire data will be added automatically once the assignment is posted.
Our NRFI model sits at 160-154 (51.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Tampa Bay Rays K vulnerability: 21.4% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
New York Yankees K vulnerability: 25.2% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Yankee Stadium carries a 1.04 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.11 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Short porch in right field (314ft); Monument Park in center field; High walls in left-center.
- First pitch forecast: 62F with 10 mph winds from the NE. Humidity: 48%.
- Wind advisory: 10 mph winds from the NE may impact fly balls.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.5 combined runs, with Tampa Bay Rays projected for 2.7 and New York Yankees for 2.8.
- That's 1.0 runs below the posted total of 6.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.