- Starter matchup: Bryse Wilson (Milwaukee Brewers) vs Andrew Painter (Philadelphia Phillies).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- Park factor: 1.04 runs; venue Citizens Bank Park.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Bryse Wilson holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Bryse Wilson carries a 3.67 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, while Andrew Painter sits at 5.59 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Bryse Wilson at 7.86 K/9, Andrew Painter at 7.98 K/9.
K projections: Bryse Wilson at 2.8 (line 4.0)
Andrew Painter projected at 3.9 (line 4.0).
Andrew Painter has a 68.0% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Bryse Wilson.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Bryse Wilson (Milwaukee Brewers) is projected for 2.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.0. The projection sits 1.2 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 21.4% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Andrew Painter (Philadelphia Phillies) is projected for 3.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.0. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.8% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Milwaukee Brewers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Philadelphia Phillies batters K at 21.4%, Milwaukee Brewers batters at 24.8%.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Milwaukee Brewers K vulnerability: 24.8% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Philadelphia Phillies K vulnerability: 21.4% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Citizens Bank Park carries a 1.04 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.08 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Short left field porch (329ft); Elevated playing surface; Art Deco design.
- First pitch forecast: 64F with 13 mph winds from the NE. Humidity: 53%.
- Wind advisory: 13 mph winds from the NE may impact fly balls.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.
Run Projections & Total
Run projections not available for this game.