- Starter matchup: Kyle Leahy (St. Louis Cardinals) vs Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- Market context: odds are posted; see the Betting Board for current lines.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Kyle Leahy holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Kyle Leahy carries a 3.65 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, while Paul Skenes sits at 3.91 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Kyle Leahy at 8.41 K/9, Paul Skenes at 10.29 K/9.
K projections: Kyle Leahy at 2.7 (line 4.0)
Paul Skenes projected at 3.7 (line 4.0).
First-inning scoring: Kyle Leahy holds a 75.8% career NRFI rate, Paul Skenes at 78.9%. Combined average: 77.3%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Kyle Leahy (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 2.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.0. The projection sits 1.2 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.1% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates) is projected for 3.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.0. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.2% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Pittsburgh Pirates lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Pittsburgh Pirates batters K at 24.1%, St. Louis Cardinals batters at 23.2%.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
St. Louis Cardinals K vulnerability: 23.2% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Pittsburgh Pirates K vulnerability: 24.1% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- PNC Park carries a 1.00 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 0.98 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Right field wall angles; Elevated RF corner; Allegheny River backdrop.
- First pitch forecast: 60F with 9 mph winds from the ENE. Humidity: 54%.
- Temperature drops from 60F at first pitch to 64F by the late innings.
- Wind advisory: 9 mph winds from the ENE may impact fly balls.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.
Run Projections & Total
Run projections not available for this game.