Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Preview

On the season, Cam Schlittler holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Ian Seymour carries a 4.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, while Cam Schlittler sits at 1.94 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Ian Seymour at 10.96 K/9, Cam Schlittler at 11.05 K/9.
K projections: Ian Seymour at 5.3 (line 5.5)
Cam Schlittler projected at 5.1 (line 5.0).
First-inning scoring: Ian Seymour holds a 73.3% career NRFI rate, Cam Schlittler at 80.0%. Combined average: 76.7%.
This is a LHP vs RHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.

Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.

Ian Seymour (Tampa Bay Rays) is projected for 5.3 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 25.2% with a 28.0% whiff rate.

Cam Schlittler (New York Yankees) is projected for 5.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.0. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 21.4% with a 28.0% whiff rate.

The New York Yankees lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Yankees batters K at 25.2%, Tampa Bay Rays batters at 21.4%.

Lineups are projected as of this writing.

Tampa Bay Rays K vulnerability: 21.4% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.

New York Yankees K vulnerability: 25.2% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.

• Yankee Stadium carries a 1.04 run factor (neutral).
• Home run factor: 1.11 — the park elevates HR power.
• Park notes: Short porch in right field (314ft); Monument Park in center field; High walls in left-center.

First pitch forecast: 63F with 8 mph winds from the NNE. Humidity: 51%.

Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.

Run projections not available for this game.