Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Preview

On the season, Trey Yesavage holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Rhett Lowder carries a 6.01 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, while Trey Yesavage sits at 3.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Rhett Lowder at 7.14 K/9, Trey Yesavage at 8.84 K/9.
K projections: Rhett Lowder at 3.0 (line 4.0)
Trey Yesavage projected at 4.1 (line 4.0).
First-inning scoring: Rhett Lowder holds a 65.4% career NRFI rate, Trey Yesavage at 66.7%. Combined average: 66.0%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.

Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.

Rhett Lowder (Cincinnati Reds) is projected for 3.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.0. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 20.2% with a 28.0% whiff rate.

Trey Yesavage (Toronto Blue Jays) is projected for 4.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.0. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 26.7% with a 28.0% whiff rate.

The Cincinnati Reds lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Toronto Blue Jays batters K at 20.2%, Cincinnati Reds batters at 26.7%.

Lineups are projected as of this writing.

Cincinnati Reds K vulnerability: 26.7% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.

Toronto Blue Jays K vulnerability: 20.2% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.

• Rogers Centre carries a 0.99 run factor (neutral).
• Home run factor: 1.00 — the park neutral for HR power.
• Park notes: Retractable roof; Turf outfield; Relatively neutral dimensions.
• Roof: Retractable.

Climate controlled. Roof expected closed. Standard 72F conditions, no wind factor.

Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.

Run projections not available for this game.