St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview

On the season, Quinn Mathews holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Quinn Mathews carries a 3.65 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, while Dustin May sits at 4.67 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Quinn Mathews at 7.92 K/9, Dustin May at 8.77 K/9.
K projections: Quinn Mathews at 3.8 (line 4.0)
Dustin May projected at 3.5 (line 4.0).
Dustin May has a 66.0% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Quinn Mathews.
This is a LHP vs RHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.

Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.

Quinn Mathews (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 3.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.0. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.8% with a 28.0% whiff rate.

Dustin May (Milwaukee Brewers) is projected for 3.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.0. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.2% with a 28.0% whiff rate.

The Milwaukee Brewers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Milwaukee Brewers batters K at 24.8%, St. Louis Cardinals batters at 24.2%.

Lineups are projected as of this writing.

St. Louis Cardinals K vulnerability: 24.2% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.

Milwaukee Brewers K vulnerability: 24.8% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.

• American Family Field carries a 0.98 run factor (neutral).
• Home run factor: 1.06 — the park elevates HR power.
• Park notes: 6th easiest HR but 26th in runs; Elevated position; Retractable roof.
• Roof: Retractable.

Climate controlled. Roof expected closed. Standard 72F conditions, no wind factor.

Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.

Run projections not available for this game.