The Minnesota Twins bring a 12-12 record to Citi Field on Tuesday night to face the New York Mets, who sit at 8-16 after a recent victory. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET. Joe Ryan takes the ball for Minnesota, bringing a 3.29 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 9.22 strikeouts per nine innings into the contest. The right-hander is projected for 5.3 strikeouts against a line of 5.5. Christian Scott counters for the Mets, with projections setting his strikeout total at 4.0 against a posted line of 4.5. Conditions at Citi Field call for 70-degree temperatures with nine mile-per-hour winds from the northwest. The park factor sits at 0.92 runs. Key hitters to watch include Tristan Gray with a 13.1 percent barrel rate and James Outman at 8.5 percent.
- Joe Ryan posts 3.29 ERA and 0.88 WHIP for Minnesota
- Twins enter at 12-12 while Mets sit 8-16
- Citi Field park factor sits at 0.92 runs
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Away
Joe Ryan
RHP · 2-2 · 5 GS
ERA
3.29
WHIP
0.88
K/9
9.22
IP
27.1
Career: 3.77 ERA · 1.06 WHIP · 10.05 K/9
NRFI: 70.0%
1st Inn ERA: 4.81
NYM
Home
Christian Scott
RHP · undefined-undefined · undefined GS
ERA
undefined
WHIP
undefined
K/9
undefined
IP
undefined
Career: 4.56 ERA · 1.20 WHIP · 7.42 K/9
- K projections: Joe Ryan at 5.3 (line 5.5)
- Christian Scott projected at 4.0 (line 4.5).
- Joe Ryan has a 70.0% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Christian Scott.
- Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Joe Ryan
vs NYM
Proj: 5.3Line: 5.5
-0.2
Confidence:
Christian Scott
vs MIN
Proj: 4.0Line: 4.5
-0.5
Confidence:
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
- Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) is projected for 5.3 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
- He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Christian Scott (New York Mets) is projected for 4.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Minnesota Twins lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Mets batters K at 22.0%, Minnesota Twins batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
NRFI Model
48.2%
probability of YRFI
+-3.0%
market edge
Monitor
Market implied: 51.2%Model: 48.2%
First 5 Innings
1.3est. F5 runs
MIN
3.29 ERA
5.4 inn/start
NYM
— ERA
F5 lean: Slight NYM
MIN K Projection
Joe Ryan
5.3proj
Line: 5.5
-0.2 NEUTRAL
Confidence
NYM K Projection
Christian Scott
4.0proj
Line: 4.5
-0.5 NEUTRAL
Confidence
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 48.2% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 51.2%.
- That creates a slim -3.0% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -105 / YRFI -115 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Lance Barksdale runs a tight zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 20-25 (44.4%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
2 model signals detected
Bo BichetteSignal
Hits
64.6%
Home Run Elite 0.5
19.6%
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Batter vs Pitcher matchup tool
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Minnesota Twins K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
Hourly Game Forecast
70°
7 PM
9 mph
NW
70°
8 PM
9 mph
NW
70°
9 PM
9 mph
NW
70°
10 PM
9 mph
NW
- Citi Field carries a 0.92 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Very deep power alleys; High walls in LCF/RCF; Inspired by old Polo Grounds.
- First pitch forecast: 70F with 9 mph winds from the NW. Humidity: 21%.
- Wind advisory: 9 mph winds from the NW may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Lance Barksdale.
- Career NRFI rate: 46.2% across 93 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
- K factor: 0.952 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 2.4 combined runs, with Minnesota Twins projected for 2.4 and New York Mets for 0.0.
- That's 5.6 runs below the posted total of 8.0, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors Minnesota Twins by 2.4 runs.
The Bottom Line
Joe Ryan brings strong ratios to the mound for Minnesota in a Tuesday night road game against the Mets. Christian Scott opposes for New York at pitcher-friendly Citi Field with a 0.92 run park factor.
This preview is generated from thecapper.io projection models and publicly available data. All projections are model estimates, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.