- Starter matchup: Brady Singer (Cincinnati Reds) vs Eury Pérez (Miami Marlins).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 50% probability, lean YRFI, -4.9% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Brady Singer holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Brady Singer carries a 5.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, while Eury Pérez sits at 5.73 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Brady Singer at 10.00 K/9, Eury Pérez at 9.82 K/9.
K projections: Brady Singer at 4.5 (line 4.5)
Eury Pérez projected at 3.6 (line 6.5).
First-inning scoring: Brady Singer holds a 71.7% career NRFI rate, Eury Pérez at 67.1%. Combined average: 69.4%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Brady Singer (Cincinnati Reds) is projected for 4.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection sits 0.0 K below the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a low-K lineup that strikes out at 18.5% with a 24.9% whiff rate.
Eury Pérez (Miami Marlins) is projected for 3.6 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection sits 2.9 K below the line, giving the model a Under lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 43%.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 20.1% with a 24.6% whiff rate.
The Cincinnati Reds lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Miami Marlins batters K at 18.5%, Cincinnati Reds batters at 20.1%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 49.7% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 54.5%.
- That creates a slim -4.9% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -120 / YRFI -102 at FanDuel.
- Publication tier: slate_only.
- Home plate umpire D.J. Reyburn runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 12-11 (52.2%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Lineup K vulnerability: 20.1% strikeout rate, 24.6% whiff rate.
Lineup K vulnerability: 18.5% strikeout rate, 24.9% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- loanDepot park carries a 0.94 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.90 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Extreme pitcher-friendly; Retractable roof; Suppresses HRs significantly.
- Roof: Retractable.
Climate controlled. Roof expected closed. Standard 72F conditions, no wind factor.
- Home plate umpire: D.J. Reyburn.
- Career NRFI rate: 52.2% across 90 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.014 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.2 combined runs, with Cincinnati Reds projected for 2.8 and Miami Marlins for 2.4.
- That's 2.3 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors Cincinnati Reds by 0.4 runs.