- Roupp posts 3.24 ERA with 1.14 WHIP for struggling Giants
- Burns strikes out 9.92 per nine for 11-7 Reds
- Luis Arraez batting .334 against right-handed pitching
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Landen Roupp holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Landen Roupp carries a 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, while Chase Burns sits at 2.42 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Landen Roupp at 9.53 K/9, Chase Burns at 8.87 K/9.
K projections: Landen Roupp at 5.1 (line 5.5)
Chase Burns projected at 5.3 (line 6.5).
Landen Roupp has a 70.8% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Chase Burns.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Landen Roupp (San Francisco Giants) is projected for 5.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Chase Burns (Cincinnati Reds) is projected for 5.3 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The San Francisco Giants lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Cincinnati Reds batters K at 22.0%, San Francisco Giants batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 54.4% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 54.1%.
- That creates a slim 0.2% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -118 / YRFI -104 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Junior Valentine runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 13-17 (43.3%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
San Francisco Giants K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Cincinnati Reds K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Great American Ball Park carries a 1.09 run factor (hitter-friendly).
- Home run factor: 1.18 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Close outfield walls; Shallow power alleys; Ohio River nearby.
- First pitch forecast: 76F with 12 mph winds from the SSW. Humidity: 56%.
- Wind advisory: 12 mph winds from the SSW may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Junior Valentine.
- Career NRFI rate: 54.2% across 83 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.041 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.5 combined runs, with San Francisco Giants projected for 2.6 and Cincinnati Reds for 2.9.
- That's 2.5 runs below the posted total of 8, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.