- Starter matchup: Jack Flaherty (Detroit Tigers) vs Sonny Gray (Boston Red Sox).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 55% probability, lean YRFI, -2.0% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Jack Flaherty holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Jack Flaherty carries a 3.47 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while Sonny Gray sits at 4.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Jack Flaherty at 9.26 K/9, Sonny Gray at 5.09 K/9.
K projections: Jack Flaherty at 5.0 (line 5.5)
Sonny Gray projected at 4.7 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Jack Flaherty holds a 74.1% career NRFI rate, Sonny Gray at 80.5%. Combined average: 77.3%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Jack Flaherty (Detroit Tigers) is projected for 5.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Sonny Gray (Boston Red Sox) is projected for 4.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Detroit Tigers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Boston Red Sox batters K at 22.0%, Detroit Tigers batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 54.9% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 56.9%.
- That creates a slim -2.0% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -132 / YRFI +100 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Will Little runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 16-22 (42.1%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Detroit Tigers K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Boston Red Sox K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Fenway Park carries a 1.08 run factor (hitter-friendly).
- Home run factor: 1.15 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Green Monster (37ft wall in left field); Pesky's Pole (302ft in right field); Triangle in center field.
- First pitch forecast: 48F with 10 mph winds from the W. Humidity: 50%.
- Wind advisory: 10 mph winds from the W may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Will Little.
- Career NRFI rate: 43.6% across 78 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.027 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.6 combined runs, with Detroit Tigers projected for 2.8 and Boston Red Sox for 2.8.
- That's 1.9 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.