- Yankees enter on a four-game winning streak at 14-9
- Max Fried owns a 2.97 ERA and 0.81 WHIP this season
- NRFI carries 60 percent probability with 7.5 percent edge
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Max Fried holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Max Fried carries a 2.97 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, while Ranger Suarez sits at 3.22 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Max Fried at 6.21 K/9, Ranger Suarez at 6.04 K/9.
K projections: Max Fried at 5.0 (line 5.5)
Ranger Suarez projected at 5.2 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Max Fried holds a 78.0% career NRFI rate, Ranger Suarez at 81.7%. Combined average: 79.9%.
Both starters throw from the L side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Max Fried (New York Yankees) is projected for 5.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Ranger Suarez (Boston Red Sox) is projected for 5.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The New York Yankees lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Boston Red Sox batters K at 22.0%, New York Yankees batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 59.9% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.4%.
- That creates a moderate 7.5% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -110 / YRFI -110 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a playable in our publication system.
- Home plate umpire Todd Tichenor runs a wide zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 19-23 (45.2%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are unavailable as of this writing.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Fenway Park carries a 1.08 run factor (hitter-friendly).
- Home run factor: 1.15 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Green Monster (37ft wall in left field); Pesky's Pole (302ft in right field); Triangle in center field.
First pitch forecast: 45F with 7 mph winds from the S. Humidity: 80%.
- Home plate umpire: Todd Tichenor.
- Career NRFI rate: 53.9% across 89 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 0.967 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
Run projections not available for this game.