- Starter matchup: Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins) vs Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers).
- Lineup status: not yet posted.
- NRFI model: 63% probability, lean YRFI, -8.5% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Tyler Glasnow holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Sandy Alcantara carries a 3.04 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, while Tyler Glasnow sits at 2.56 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Sandy Alcantara at 5.89 K/9, Tyler Glasnow at 10.94 K/9.
K projections: Sandy Alcantara at 4.6 (line 4.5)
Tyler Glasnow projected at 5.7 (line 6.5).
First-inning scoring: Sandy Alcantara holds a 70.6% career NRFI rate, Tyler Glasnow at 86.1%. Combined average: 78.4%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins) is projected for 4.6 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) is projected for 5.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Miami Marlins lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Los Angeles Dodgers batters K at 22.0%, Miami Marlins batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 62.9% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 71.4%.
- That creates a slim -8.5% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -250 / YRFI +182 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Austin Jones runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 34-30 (53.1%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are unavailable as of this writing.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
Park factor data not available for UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium.
Weather forecast not available for this game.
- Home plate umpire: Austin Jones.
- Career NRFI rate: 50.0% across 36 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.018 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
Run projections not available for this game.