- Starter matchup: Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals) vs David Peterson (New York Mets).
- Lineup status: not yet posted.
- NRFI model: 58% probability, lean NRFI, +8.9% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Cade Cavalli holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Cade Cavalli carries a 4.01 ERA and 1.66 WHIP, while David Peterson sits at 5.06 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Cade Cavalli at 10.22 K/9, David Peterson at 8.10 K/9.
K projections: Cade Cavalli at 4.7 (line 4.5)
David Peterson projected at 4.7 (line 5.5).
David Peterson has a 82.8% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Cade Cavalli.
This is a RHP vs LHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals) is projected for 4.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
David Peterson (New York Mets) is projected for 4.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Washington Nationals lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Mets batters K at 22.0%, Washington Nationals batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 58.4% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 49.5%.
- That creates a moderate 8.9% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI +102 / YRFI -124 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Bill Miller runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 34-30 (53.1%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are unavailable as of this writing.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Citi Field carries a 0.92 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Very deep power alleys; High walls in LCF/RCF; Inspired by old Polo Grounds.
- First pitch forecast: 53F with 8 mph winds from the SSE. Humidity: 83%.
- Wind advisory: 8 mph winds from the SSE may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Bill Miller.
- Career NRFI rate: 50.0% across 96 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly wide.
- K factor: 1.046 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
Run projections not available for this game.