- Starter matchup: Freddy Peralta (New York Mets) vs Michael Lorenzen (Colorado Rockies).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 57% probability, lean NRFI, +4.3% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Freddy Peralta holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Freddy Peralta carries a 3.52 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, while Michael Lorenzen sits at 6.09 ERA and 1.76 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Freddy Peralta at 9.86 K/9, Michael Lorenzen at 6.35 K/9.
K projections: Freddy Peralta at 6.0 (line 6.5)
Michael Lorenzen projected at 3.9 (line 3.5).
First-inning scoring: Freddy Peralta holds a 75.1% career NRFI rate, Michael Lorenzen at 80.0%. Combined average: 77.6%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Freddy Peralta (New York Mets) is projected for 6.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.8% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Michael Lorenzen (Colorado Rockies) is projected for 3.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.4% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Colorado Rockies lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Colorado Rockies batters K at 24.8%, New York Mets batters at 23.4%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 56.7% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.4%.
- That creates a slim 4.3% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -110 / YRFI -110 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a playable in our publication system.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. Umpire data will be added automatically once the assignment is posted.
Our NRFI model sits at 41-39 (51.2%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
New York Mets K vulnerability: 23.4% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Colorado Rockies K vulnerability: 24.8% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Coors Field carries a 1.25 run factor (hitter-friendly).
- Home run factor: 1.47 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Extreme elevation (5280ft/Mile High); Thin air reduces drag; Humidor storage of baseballs.
First pitch forecast: 38F with 3 mph winds from the ENE. Humidity: 100%.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.8 combined runs, with New York Mets projected for 2.8 and Colorado Rockies for 2.9.
- That's 3.8 runs below the posted total of 9.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.