- Starter matchup: Shane Baz (Baltimore Orioles) vs Sean Manaea (New York Mets).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 48% probability, lean YRFI, -5.0% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Shane Baz holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Shane Baz carries a 4.05 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, while Sean Manaea sits at 4.79 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Shane Baz at 7.99 K/9, Sean Manaea at 8.51 K/9.
K projections: Shane Baz at 3.8 (line 4.5)
Sean Manaea projected at 3.7 (line 6.5).
First-inning scoring: Shane Baz holds a 70.1% career NRFI rate, Sean Manaea at 62.7%. Combined average: 66.4%.
This is a RHP vs LHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Shane Baz (Baltimore Orioles) is projected for 3.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.6% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Sean Manaea (New York Mets) is projected for 3.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection sits 2.8 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 27.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Baltimore Orioles lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Mets batters K at 23.6%, Baltimore Orioles batters at 27.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 48.4% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 53.5%.
- That creates a slim -5.0% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -115 / YRFI -104 at DraftKings.
- Home plate umpire Mark Ripperger runs a tight zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 156-143 (52.2%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Baltimore Orioles K vulnerability: 27.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
New York Mets K vulnerability: 23.6% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Citi Field carries a 0.92 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Very deep power alleys; High walls in LCF/RCF; Inspired by old Polo Grounds.
First pitch forecast: 67F with 6 mph winds from the SE. Humidity: 62%.
- Home plate umpire: Mark Ripperger.
- Career NRFI rate: 42.9% across 7 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
- K factor: 1.014 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.4 combined runs, with Baltimore Orioles projected for 2.6 and New York Mets for 2.8.
- That's 2.6 runs below the posted total of 8.0, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.