- Starter matchup: Chris Bassitt (Baltimore Orioles) vs Xzavion Curry (New York Mets).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 51% probability, lean YRFI, -6.6% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Xzavion Curry holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Chris Bassitt carries a 4.88 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while Xzavion Curry sits at 3.44 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Chris Bassitt at 6.58 K/9, Xzavion Curry at 5.89 K/9.
K projections: Chris Bassitt at 3.7 (line 3.5)
Xzavion Curry projected at 2.6 (line 4.0).
Chris Bassitt has a 65.2% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Xzavion Curry.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Chris Bassitt (Baltimore Orioles) is projected for 3.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.6% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Xzavion Curry (New York Mets) is projected for 2.6 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.0. The projection sits 1.4 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 28.7% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Baltimore Orioles lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Mets batters K at 22.6%, Baltimore Orioles batters at 28.7%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 50.7% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 57.3%.
- That creates a slim -6.6% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -134 / YRFI +110 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Shane Livensparger runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 156-145 (51.8%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Baltimore Orioles K vulnerability: 28.7% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
New York Mets K vulnerability: 22.6% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Citi Field carries a 0.92 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Very deep power alleys; High walls in LCF/RCF; Inspired by old Polo Grounds.
- First pitch forecast: 72F with 8 mph winds from the SSE. Humidity: 77%.
- Wind advisory: 8 mph winds from the SSE may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Shane Livensparger.
- Career NRFI rate: 57.1% across 7 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
- K factor: 0.929 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.6 combined runs, with Baltimore Orioles projected for 2.8 and New York Mets for 2.8.
- That's 2.9 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.