- Starter matchup: Tim Mayza (Philadelphia Phillies) vs Zac Thornton (New York Mets).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 56% probability, lean NRFI, +2.4% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Tim Mayza holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Tim Mayza carries a 3.06 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, while Zac Thornton sits at 3.44 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Tim Mayza at 8.77 K/9, Zac Thornton at 6.75 K/9.
K projections: Tim Mayza at 3.1 (line 4.0)
Zac Thornton projected at 3.8 (line 4.0).
Both starters throw from the L side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Tim Mayza (Philadelphia Phillies) is projected for 3.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.0. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Zac Thornton (New York Mets) is projected for 3.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.0. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.5% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The New York Mets lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Mets batters K at 23.0%, Philadelphia Phillies batters at 22.5%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 55.7% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 53.3%.
- That creates a slim 2.4% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -114 / YRFI -106 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Paul Clemons runs a wide zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 158-146 (52.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Philadelphia Phillies K vulnerability: 22.5% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
New York Mets K vulnerability: 23.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Citi Field carries a 0.92 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Very deep power alleys; High walls in LCF/RCF; Inspired by old Polo Grounds.
First pitch forecast: 75F with 5 mph winds from the N. Humidity: 54%.
- Home plate umpire: Paul Clemons.
- Career NRFI rate: 33.3% across 6 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Wide.
- K factor: 0.885 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.1 combined runs, with Philadelphia Phillies projected for 2.4 and New York Mets for 2.8.
- That's 3.4 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors New York Mets by 0.4 runs.