- Starter matchup: Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers) vs Brandon Young (Baltimore Orioles).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 46% probability, lean YRFI, -6.2% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Jacob Misiorowski holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Jacob Misiorowski carries a 1.89 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, while Brandon Young sits at 3.65 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Jacob Misiorowski at 13.15 K/9, Brandon Young at 7.29 K/9.
K projections: Jacob Misiorowski at 5.2 (line 8.5)
Brandon Young projected at 3.5 (line 4.5).
First-inning scoring: Jacob Misiorowski holds a 70.3% career NRFI rate, Brandon Young at 65.4%. Combined average: 67.8%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers) is projected for 5.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 8.5. The projection sits 3.3 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 27.8% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Brandon Young (Baltimore Orioles) is projected for 3.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection sits 1.0 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.8% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Baltimore Orioles lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Baltimore Orioles batters K at 27.8%, Milwaukee Brewers batters at 23.8%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 46.1% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.4%.
- That creates a slim -6.2% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -110 / YRFI -110 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Alan Porter runs a wide zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 158-152 (51.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Milwaukee Brewers K vulnerability: 23.8% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Baltimore Orioles K vulnerability: 27.8% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Oriole Park at Camden Yards carries a 1.03 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.08 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Left field wall angles away; Narrow left field alley; Elevated field area.
First pitch forecast: 75F with 4 mph winds from the NW. Humidity: 90%.
- Home plate umpire: Alan Porter.
- Career NRFI rate: 57.1% across 7 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Wide.
- K factor: 0.972 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.7 combined runs, with Milwaukee Brewers projected for 2.8 and Baltimore Orioles for 2.9.
- That's 1.8 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.