- Starter matchup: Robbie Ray (San Diego Padres) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 58% probability, lean NRFI, +9.1% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Robbie Ray carries a 3.60 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto sits at 2.51 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Robbie Ray at 7.65 K/9, Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 8.95 K/9.
K projections: Robbie Ray at 2.7 (line 3.5)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto projected at 5.3 (line 6.5).
First-inning scoring: Robbie Ray holds a 80.4% career NRFI rate, Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 70.3%. Combined average: 75.3%.
This is a LHP vs RHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Robbie Ray (San Diego Padres) is projected for 2.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.2% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers) is projected for 5.3 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection sits 1.2 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.3% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The San Diego Padres lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Los Angeles Dodgers batters K at 22.2%, San Diego Padres batters at 22.3%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 57.6% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 48.5%.
- That creates a moderate 9.1% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI +106 / YRFI -130 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a playable in our publication system.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. Umpire data will be added automatically once the assignment is posted.
Our NRFI model sits at 160-154 (51.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
San Diego Padres K vulnerability: 22.3% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Los Angeles Dodgers K vulnerability: 22.2% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
Park factor data not available for UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium.
First pitch forecast: 70F with 5 mph winds from the WSW. Humidity: 84%.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.3 combined runs, with San Diego Padres projected for 2.6 and Los Angeles Dodgers for 2.7.
- That's 3.2 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.