Early Beta · Research Model

F5 Markets

First 5 innings: ML, runline, and total

First-5-innings moneyline, runline, and total probabilities. Isolates the starter-vs-starter matchup before bullpen influence. Not official picks.

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This is an early beta research model. Not official picks.

How to Read This Page

Model Prob — Poisson-compound simulation estimate.

Implied Prob — Break-even rate from sportsbook odds.

Edge — Model prob minus implied. Positive = value.

Research Pick — Best edge per market per game.

Candidate Audit — All sides, ~50% win rate by design.

Frozen Odds — Snapshot at model time, may differ from live.