Early Beta · Research Model
Game Result
Full-game moneyline and runline
Moneyline win probability and runline coverage probability for each team, derived from Poisson-compound run distributions. Not official picks.
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This is an early beta research model. Not official picks.
How to Read This Page
Model Prob — Poisson-compound simulation estimate.
Implied Prob — Break-even rate from sportsbook odds.
Edge — Model prob minus implied. Positive = value.
Research Pick — Best edge per market per game.
Candidate Audit — All sides, ~50% win rate by design.
Frozen Odds — Snapshot at model time, may differ from live.