- Starter matchup: Simeon Woods Richardson (Minnesota Twins) vs Nolan McLean (New York Mets).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 60% probability, lean NRFI, +9.4% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Nolan McLean holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Simeon Woods Richardson carries a 6.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, while Nolan McLean sits at 2.28 ERA and 0.76 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Simeon Woods Richardson at 4.79 K/9, Nolan McLean at 10.65 K/9.
K projections: Simeon Woods Richardson at 4.1 (line 4.5)
Nolan McLean projected at 5.9 (line 6.5).
Simeon Woods Richardson has a 83.1% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Nolan McLean.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Simeon Woods Richardson (Minnesota Twins) is projected for 4.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Nolan McLean (New York Mets) is projected for 5.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Minnesota Twins lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Mets batters K at 22.0%, Minnesota Twins batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 60.4% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 51.0%.
- That creates a moderate 9.4% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -104 / YRFI -118 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Ryan Additon runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 17-23 (42.5%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Minnesota Twins K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
New York Mets K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Citi Field carries a 0.92 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Very deep power alleys; High walls in LCF/RCF; Inspired by old Polo Grounds.
- First pitch forecast: 45F with 11 mph winds from the SSE. Humidity: 42%.
- Wind advisory: 11 mph winds from the SSE may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Ryan Additon.
- Career NRFI rate: 45.4% across 86 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 0.981 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 4.9 combined runs, with Minnesota Twins projected for 2.7 and New York Mets for 2.2.
- That's 2.6 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors Minnesota Twins by 0.5 runs.