Baltimore travels to Citi Field for a Friday night matchup with the Mets that projects as one of the tighter scoring environments on the slate. The Orioles stand at 72-78 after dropping two straight. The Mets are 69-80 following a single loss. Brandon Young takes the ball for Baltimore with a 3.71ERA, a 1.35WHIP, and 7.17 strikeouts per nine innings. Jonah Tong counters for New York with a 4.80ERA, a 1.33WHIP, and 8.40 strikeouts per nine. The projected total sits at 5.6 runs, split evenly at 2.8 per side. Citi Field carries a 0.92 park factor, one of the more pitcher-friendly venues in the league. The temperature should sit around 68 degrees with a nine-mile-per-hour wind out of the north. Over the last ten games at Citi, the average total has climbed to 9.3 runs and the over has cashed 62 percent of the time, though the NRFI has landed exactly half the time. Young has been sharp in first-inning work, posting a 71 percent NRFI rate across 24 first-inning appearances. The K model projects Young at 3.3 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5, grading the lean neutral with confidence at 5 out of 10. Tong projects at 4.5 strikeouts versus a line of 5.5, a full strikeout below the number, and the model leans under with confidence at 7 out of 10. The NRFI grades at 51 percent probability with a negative 5.5 percent edge on the YRFI side. Baltimore's bullpen sits at 78 out of 100 on the fatigue scale with Yaramil Hiraldo unavailable. New York's relief corps is fresher at 58 out of 100. Pete Alonso leads the power metrics with an 18.0 percent barrel rate, Jackson Holliday checks in at 16.0 percent, and Gunnar Henderson sits at 9.1 percent.
Young holds 71 percent NRFI rate across 24 first-inning starts
Tong strikeout projection sits full strikeout below posted 5.5 line
Baltimore bullpen fatigue at 78, Mets relief corps fresher at 58
Pitching Matchup
BALAway
Brandon Young
RHP · 9-4 · 25 GS
ERA
3.71
WHIP
1.35
K/9
7.17
IP
140.2
Career: 4.45 ERA · 1.41 WHIP · 7.22 K/9
NRFI: 66.4%
1st Inn ERA: 5.52
NYMHome
Jonah Tong
RHP · 2-1 · 1 GS
ERA
4.80
WHIP
1.33
K/9
8.40
IP
15.0
Career: 6.42 ERA · 1.57 WHIP · 9.62 K/9
On the season, Brandon Young holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Brandon Young carries a 3.71ERA and 1.35WHIP, while Jonah Tong sits at 4.80ERA and 1.33WHIP. Strikeout rates: Brandon Young at 7.17K/9, Jonah Tong at 8.40K/9. K projections: Brandon Young at 3.3 (line 3.5) Jonah Tong projected at 4.5 (line 5.5). Brandon Young has a 66.4% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Jonah Tong. Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Brandon Young (Baltimore Orioles) is projected for 3.3 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge. He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.6% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Jonah Tong (New York Mets) is projected for 4.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.0 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean. He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 27.6% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Baltimore Orioles lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Mets batters K at 23.6%, Baltimore Orioles batters at 27.6%.
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 50.7% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 49.0%.
That creates a slim 1.6% edge on NRFI.
The best available line is NRFI +104 / YRFI -128 at FanDuel.
Home plate umpire Dan Bellino runs a wide zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
Our NRFI model sits at 155-143 (52.0%) on official picks this season.
Citi Field carries a 0.92 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
Park notes: Very deep power alleys; High walls in LCF/RCF; Inspired by old Polo Grounds.
First pitch forecast: 69F with 7 mph winds from the N. Humidity: 45%.
Home plate umpire: Dan Bellino.
Career NRFI rate: 57.1% across 7 games tracked.
Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
K factor: 0.870 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
Our projection model puts the total at 5.6 combined runs, with Baltimore Orioles projected for 2.8 and New York Mets for 2.8.
That's 2.9 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.
The Bottom Line
The strikeout model identifies the clearest edge on Tong's under 5.5, with a full strikeout of separation and 7 out of 10 confidence. Young's NRFI history is compelling at 71 percent across 24 first-inning starts, but the model prices the NRFI at 51 percent with a negative edge on the YRFI, so the value isn't clean. The projected total of 5.6 sits well below the ten-game Citi average of 9.3, a reflection of both the park factor and the pitching lines rather than recent venue trends. Baltimore's bullpen fatigue at 78 out of 100 is a risk if Young exits early, and Hiraldo is unavailable. The Tong strikeout under is the sharpest angle on the card.
This preview is generated from thecapper.io projection models and publicly available data. All projections are model estimates, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
